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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd