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Beijing has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.